This link has been bookmarked by 210 people . It was first bookmarked on 02 Mar 2006, by Dan McCrea.
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Michael Clarkgraph exponential scale-size of mass use of inventions
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An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate). The "returns," such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There's even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity -- technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.
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whip_lashAn analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progres
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Julie WetmoreSingularity
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The Singularity -- technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.
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edtechtalkIn his own words, Ray Kurzweil on Singularity 73d03f10df14da60167629ac20e08d8d
vancestevens article evolution future Kurzweil singularity essay RayKurzweil The Law of Accelerating Returns 20100523 technology science
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Jennifer MaddrellIn his own words, Ray Kurzweil on Singularity 73d03f10df14da60167629ac20e08d8d
vancestevens article evolution future Kurzweil singularity essay RayKurzweil The Law of Accelerating Returns 20100523 technology science
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Vance StevensIn his own words, Ray Kurzweil on Singularity
article evolution future Kurzweil singularity essay RayKurzweil for:edtechtalk
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Mike CaneYou will get $40 trillion just by reading this essay and understanding what it says. For complete details, see below.
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graeme woodRay Kurzweil on how accelerating returns will lead to an evolutionary singularity
technology future philosophy tech culture research kurzweil singularity evolution ai
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Gene23 ShashinThe Law of Accelerating Returns
by Ray Kurzweil
An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st -
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Singularity -- technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history.
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EvertonPomAn analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progres
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Scott GarriganSingle article on Law of Accelerating Returns
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Frank SpencerAn analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progres
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Shalabh ChaturvediThoughts on evolution, technology and an upcoming 'singularity'
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Steve SpaldingThe rate of change is increasing at an increasing rate.
technology future singularity science kurzweil evolution culture ai
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From the mathematician's perspective, a primary reason for this is that an exponential curve approximates a straight line when viewed for a brief duration. So even though the rate of progress in the very recent past (e.g., this past year) is far greater than it was ten years ago (let alone a hundred or a thousand years ago), our memories are nonetheless dominated by our very recent experience.
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Daniel WentschAn analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progres
science scifi artificial-intelligence information-technology
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Michel BauwensAn analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progres
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annestAn analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progres
data design future internet life media music news quantum readlater science singularity tech toread
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Can the pace of technological progress continue to speed up indefinitely? Is there not a point where humans are unable to think fast enough to keep up with it? With regard to unenhanced humans, clearly so. But what would a thousand scientists, each a thousand times more intelligent than human scientists today, and each operating a thousand times faster than contemporary humans (because the information processing in their primarily nonbiological brains is faster) accomplish? One year would be like a millennium. What would they come up with?
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Well, for one thing, they would come up with technology to become even more intelligent (because their intelligence is no longer of fixed capacity).
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This, then, is the Singularity. The Singularity is technological change so rapid and so profound that it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history.
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Needless to say, the Singularity will transform all aspects of our lives, social, sexual, and economic,
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- We achieve one Human Brain capability (2 * 10^16 cps) for $1,000 around the year 2023.
- We achieve one Human Brain capability (2 * 10^16 cps) for one cent around the year 2037.
- We achieve one Human Race capability (2 * 10^26 cps) for $1,000 around the year 2049.
- We achieve one Human Race capability (2 * 10^26 cps) for one cent around the year 2059.
Some prominent dates from this analysis include the following:
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By 2030, going to a web site will mean entering a full immersion virtual reality environment.
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Brain implants based on massively distributed intelligent nanobots will ultimately expand our memories a trillion fold, and otherwise vastly improve all of our sensory, pattern recognition, and cognitive abilities.
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And in the same way that biological self-replication gone awry (i.e., cancer) results in biological destruction, a defect in the mechanism curtailing nanobot self-replication would endanger all physical entities, biological or otherwise.
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A related question is "is death desirable?"
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Plan to Stick Around
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Joe Showkerintellectual, VERY intellectual overview of the evolution of technology
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Jason de NysAwesome essay. Makes the future seem worth hanging around for.
acceleratingreturns law technology science education reference
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t is important to ponder the nature of exponential growth. Toward this end, I am fond of telling the tale of the inventor of chess and his patron, the emperor of China. In response to the emperor's offer of a reward for his new beloved game, the inventor asked for a single grain of rice on the first square, two on the second square, four on the third, and so on. The Emperor quickly granted this seemingly benign and humble request. One version of the story has the emperor going bankrupt as the 63 doublings ultimately totaled 18 million trillion grains of rice. At ten grains of rice per square inch, this requires rice fields covering twice the surface area of the Earth, oceans included. Another version of the story has the inventor losing his head.
It should be pointed out that as the emperor and the inventor went through the first half of the chess board, things were fairly uneventful. The inventor was given spoonfuls of rice, then bowls of rice, then barrels. By the end of the first half of the chess board, the inventor had accumulated one large field's worth (4 billion grains), and the emperor did start to take notice. It was as they progressed through the second half of the chessboard that the situation quickly deteriorated. Incidentally, with regard to the doublings of computation, that's about where we stand now--there have been slightly more than 32 doublings of performance since the first programmable computers were invented during World War II.
This is the nature of exponential growth. Although technology grows in the exponential domain, we humans live in a linear world. So technological trends are not noticed as small levels of technological power are doubled. Then seemingly out of nowhere, a technology explodes into view. For example, when the Internet went from 20,000 to 80,000 nodes over a two year period during the 1980s, this progress remained hidden from the general public. A decade later, when it went from 20 million to 80 million nodes in the same amount of time, the impact was rather conspicuous.
As exponential growth continues to accelerate into the first half of the twenty-first century, it will appear to explode into infinity, at least from the limited and linear perspective of contemporary humans. The progress will ultimately become so fast that it will rupture our ability to follow it. It will literally get out of our control. The illusion that we have our hand "on the plug," will be dispelled.
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