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Ces..formats..sont..lisibles..uniquement..en..streaming..sur..votre..ordinateurPlease..try..again..later^..O..sinal..e..o..rudoSilver...crunched...numbers...dating...back...to...the...1970s...and...found...that...the...bounce...comes...less...from...winning...Iowa...than...from...exceeding...expectations...there.Silvers...method...is...completely...straightforward:...how...else...would...you...approach...a...question...like...this...if...not...by...considering...every...previous...example?...But...the...method...is...so...empowering...that...its...intoxicating......as...if...theres...no...question...he...couldnt...answer...with...a...big...enough...spreadsheet.Which...is...why...its...slightly...heartbreaking...to...read...in...the...introduction...to...Silvers...new...book,...The...Signal...and...the...Noise,...that,...having...set...out...to...write...a...geek-conquers-world...tell-all...in...the...vein...of...Moneyball...and...Freakonomics,...Silver...decided...to...write...an...altogether...different...bookSilver...asserts...that...humans...are...overconfident...in...their...predictive...abilities,...that...they...struggle...to...think...in...probabilistic...terms...and...build...models...that...do...not...allow...for...uncertainty.The...EconomistSilver...explores...our...attempts...at...forecasting...stocks,...storms,...sports,...and...anything...else...not...set...in...stone.WiredThe...Signal...and...the...Noise...is...essential...reading...in...the...era...of...Big...Data...that...touches...every...business,...every...sports...event,...and...every...policymaker.Forbes.comLaser...sharp

 

A..lchance..de..la..priode..dessai..et..chaque..date..anniversaire..de..votre..abonnement..celui-ci..sera..reconduit..automatiquement..pour..une..priode..dun..an..moyennant..le..prix..de..labonnement..annuelBut.it.will.take.a.lot.more.than.Bayess.very.useful.theorem.to.solve.the.many.challenges.in.the.world.of.applied.statisticsBecause...of...their...appreciation...of...probability,...they...can...distinguish...the...signal...from...the...noise.With...everything...from...the...health...of...the...global...economy...to...our...ability...to...fight...terrorism...dependent...on...the...quality...of...our...predictions,...Nate...Silver’s...insights...are...an...essential...readThus,..you..will..see..apparently..serious..papers..published..on..how..toads..can..predict..earthquakes..which..apply..frequentist..tests..to..produce..statistically..significant..but..manifestly..ridiculous..findingsThis."Bayesian".approach.is.named.for.the.18th.century.minister.Thomas.Bayes.who.discovered.a.simple.formula.for.updating.probabilities.using.new.dataHe.shows.how,.at.the.rate.that.carbon.dioxide.is.accumulating,.a.single.decade.of.flat.temperatures.is.hardly.invalidatingPhoto...Credit...Illustration...by...Timothy...Goodman...And...yet,...while...The...Signal...and...the...Noise...doesnt...chronicle...Silvers...rise,...it...marks...an...important...milestone...in...his...ascentIn...The...Signal...and...the...Noise,...the...New...York...Times'...political...forecaster...and...statistics...guru...Nate...Silver...explores...the...art...of...prediction,...revealing...how...we...can...all...build...a...better...crystal...ballHuffington..PostAttention..Une..erreur..est..survenue,..veuillez..ressayer..plus..tard

 

Rachel.Maddow,.author.ofDriftNate.Silver.built.an.innovative.system.for.predicting.baseball.performance,.predicted.the.2008.election.within.a.hairs.breadth,.and.became.a.national.sensation.as.a.bloggerall.by.the.time.he.was.thirtyAbout...Nate...Silver...Nate...Silveris...the...founder...and...editor...in...chief...of...FiveThirtyEightHe...solidified...his...standing...as...the...nations...foremost...political...forecaster...with...his...near...perfect...prediction...of...the...2012...election.Silver...is...the...founder...and...editor...in...chief...of...FiveThirtyEight.com.The...fraction...of...women...in...their...forties...who...have...breast...cancer...is...0.014,...which...is...about...one...in...seventyBut..his..practice..of..testing..statistical..data..in..the..context..of..hypotheses..and..beliefs..derived..from..his..basketball..knowledge..is..very..Bayesian,..as..is..his..comfort..with..accepting..probabilistic..answers..to..his..questionsAnd,..of..course,..the..stakes..are..much..higher..when..were..talking..policy.As..long..as..someones..going..to..fill..the..role..of..public..statistician,..Im..glad..its..Nate..Silver 3d39b66ab9

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