Backing Favourites = Backing Winners

When it comes to sports betting, bettors are faced with a huge pile of information. Sports, players, form, hot streaks, injuries, weather conditions, odds and so on. There is enormous amounts of quantitative and qualitative data which can be assessed, and with a particular edge in place, the bettor can find long-term success.

When it comes to backing favourites, this is obviously some of the most bread and butter sports betting propositions available. But you have probably come across statistics saying that long-term betting on favourites is basically a zero-sum game. Although you will most likely win on the majority of bets, there is the odd one that will bring you back to square. And so the pattern continues.

Here is a simple example. Just imagine you have picked 5 favourites with starting odds of $1.25. You take those odds with a $100 stake.

Game 1 – WIN +$25

Game 2 – WIN +$25

Game 3 – WIN +$25

Game 4 – WIN +$25

Game 5 – LOSE -$100

So after 5 bets of $100 on $1.25 starting favourites we have 4 winners and 1 losers.

4 winners @ $25 each = $100 profit

1 loser @ $100 = $100 loss

So after 5 different plays we have broken even. Hey, this isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Managing your capital appropriately and finding yourself breaking even after a period of sports betting is an excellent achievement. Statistics tell us somewhere between only 5-10% of bettors continually make money from their bets. Breaking even is a result in itself, considering that more than 90% of bettors lose. Losing money is our number one enemy, breaking even and coming back with your initial outlay is quite an achievement in itself, and definitely means you are one step closer to the illusive success that profitable long-term sports betting can offer.

This brings me back to my topic of backing favourites. They are obviously favourites for a reason, most likely the player or team is in superior form and fitness and has both the mental and physical aptitude required to win. A lot of people shy away from backing favourites because they see starting odds of $1.20 or $1.30 and think this isn’t enough to justify taking on the betting proposition.

This is an incorrect way of approaching this topic. Favourites are favourites because they are expected to win. Plain and simple. They provide above average chances to profit on based on the ability and understanding of the person undertaking the bet. There will be times when a favourite does not win, but the majority of times the favourite will win.

But if probability theory tells us that long-term backing of favourites can at best produce a break-even result, we need to find what we like to call our ‘edge’ in order to profit from the situation. This means not taking every favourite which is presented to us, but by thoroughly analysing all available information relating to the game in question.

We also like to encourage bettors to sometimes question whether starting odds are the best solution to back a favourite, or whether we can look to derive additional value by hopefully seeking out higher odds once the game goes in-play.

Take for example a game of basketball. The US is playing Australia in an international friendly. The US will obviously be a short-priced starting favourite with their incredible depth of talent on and off the bench and starts the game at $1.20. Having studied all the available information we believe the US will win the game, however at $1.20 this doesn’t entice us enough to place the bet. We feel more comfortable at $1.40. So the only time we will get a fill at this price is if the US team starts slowly, and as the game progresses the market starts to price in a little bit of uncertainty in the odds. At half-time the US team is down by 2 points and we get our fill at $1.40.

This is an example of how bettors can use a certain edge in backing favourites. You have done the hard work and studied the match-up but the starting odds do not appeal. You are confident of the favourite winning but feel extra value can be derived from higher odds. Although many times you will not get filled on these bets, you can be happy knowing that yes your selection did win even though you did not profit financially from it. And when you do win you will be excited in that you outsmarted the market by finding 20 cents of additional value from each $1 staked, by simply refusing to take starting odds.

To put it visually in context with our previous example of backing 5 favourites at starting odds of $1.25. Just imagine this time we are not taking starting odds, and will look to derive value in-play from these favourites. We will presume that of the 5 bets placed all have been filled in-play at $1.50.

Game 1 – WIN +$50

Game 2 – WIN +$50

Game 3 – WIN +$50

Game 4 – WIN +$50

Game 5 – LOSE -$100

So in total we have won a net profit of $100, which works out to be a 20% return on investment. Excellent results and something any bettor should be proud of.

This is one important topic bettors need to get their head around. It is just one of many so-called ‘edge’ situations which can contribute to your long term success and a sports bettor.

Stay tuned for more exciting and relevant articles from BetBubbles covering all aspects of professional sports betting.