Russia-Ukraine crisis: How likely is it to escalate into broader war?

"Putin," said a senior British military source on Tuesday, "is not about to attack Nato. He just wants to turn Ukraine into a vassal state like Belarus." They are feeling distinctly nervous that Russian forces might not stop at Ukraine and instead use some pretext to "come to the aid" of the ethnic Russian minorities in the Baltics and invade. "Sanctions are an incredibly weak deterrent and have consistently failed to deter Russia from the use of force in Ukraine and elsewhere," said Michael Kofman, the research program director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA, a Washington-area think tank. In addition, Russia could seek to extend the separatist-controlled area, possibly by seizing communication points or power plants that would make the region more viable as a separate quasi-state. A Russian naval operation would be likely to include the seizure of a tiny island in the Black Sea known as Snake Island, or Zmiyiniy Ostriv. Ukraine controls Snake Island, enabling Kyiv to claim territorial waters that extend 12 nautical miles from the island and helping to safeguard shipping lanes to the country's Black Sea ports.

• But under Putin's rule, Russia has invaded Ukraine before, and it invaded Georgia in 2008.
• Because let's face it, that is what a lot of people are understandably asking and thinking in the light of the Kremlin's recent actions over Ukraine - actions and statements that have triggered a deluge of denouncements and sanctions from the West.
• Prisoner exchanges are a thorny subject between Russia and Ukraine, although both sides have a vested interest in carrying out sporadic swaps of prisoners of war.
• A document signed by Putin on Monday also allows him to establish military bases or place missiles in the territories.
• Severe U.S. sanctions could drive up prices for everyday Russians or cause Russia's currency or markets to crash.

Moscow will now threaten Ukraine with a broader war if it continues to fight against the “separatists”, telling Kyiv that Russia is now obliged by treaty to defend them from attack. Professor Fruehling said Mr Putin could use nuclear weapons to end the conflict in one of two ways — either to stop the momentum of the Ukrainian forces, or trigger a reaction by the US, UK and France in order to justify a withdrawal that saves face at home. Jessica Genauer, international relations lecturer at Flinders University, said the chance of nuclear weapons being used has "increased significantly in recent weeks" as more Russians voice their objections to how the war is being fought.

Imperiling Europe's East

"Our heroic rescuers, those who are always the first to arrive at the sites of enemy shelling, despite all the difficulties, continue their very important work for the sake of saving people," Zelenskyy said. Russia and Ukraine both deny deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure in the war. The European Commission is looking into ways of allowing eastern EU member states to restrict farm imports from Ukraine as it extends trade liberalisation with Kyiv for a further year to June 2025. Asked about the likelihood of Putin's visit to Turkey before the presidential elections, Peskov said that it was possible. Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to North Korea is unlikely to take place before the presidential election in March, the Kremlin's press secretary said Tuesday.

• Russian forces could move to secure a canal that Kyiv shut down in 2014.
• After a series of humiliating retreats, his initial invasion plan has clearly failed, but Russia's war is far from over.
• "The goal is obvious — they want to reduce international support for our state. It doesn't work! Ukraine has the right to protect and destroy the means of an aggressor's air attack," he said in comments translated by NBC News.
• In turn, Putin accepts Ukrainian independence and its right to deepen ties with Europe.
• The worst scenario for Putin is that it becomes another Afghanistan problem for Russian forces, or like Chechnya before 1999, with Russian forces attacked all the time and lots of reprisals, and lots of nasty incidents.

Russia's invasion in Georgia 14 years ago offers a rough analogy for a similar operation in Ukraine, he said. In 2008, Russia launched a major military offensive to prevent the Georgian government from re-establishing control over the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and the operation succeeded in imposing a political outcome in line with Moscow's interests. With Russia's formidable air and naval power, any offensive would most likely feature bombing raids, missile strikes and cyberattacks that could devastate Ukraine's military infrastructure, disrupt communications and pin down ground troops.

NATO vs. Russia

But Russia's military doctrine prescribes achieving surprise and shock; maximum use of all lethal force available; rapid tempo of operations; and quick achievement of objectives. If the destruction of cities like Mariupol is anything to go by, Russia doesn't seem intent on preserving the areas it's fighting to take control of. Russia has one of the biggest nuclear arsenals in the world, and is estimated to have thousands of nuclear warheads in its stockpile, assigned for both long-range strategic launchers and shorter-range tactical nuclear forces. "You could imagine a situation where [Putin] uses a nuclear weapon in order to force NATO into the conflict," Professor Fruehling said. Many experts have tended to agree it's unlikely Mr Putin will resort to using nuclear weapons.