Ukraine war: Countdown has begun to end of Putin, say Kyiv officials

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov told The Guardian in December that thousands of soldiers who were part of Russia's mobilization drive in October should be sufficiently trained to take part in war efforts by February. Other top officials told The Economist last month that a Russian offensive could come as soon as January. There seems to be some degree of sensitivity in Ukraine to Russia's claims it's waging a proxy war with the West over Ukraine. A lot of the Ukrainians I've talked to, while they appreciate the Western weapons supplies, say this is their war to fight.

Numbers are hard to come by, but Russia had an estimated 1,500 fighter jets before the war began and still has the vast majority of them, probably 1,400 or more. A year ago, most everyone expected Russia to dominate the skies with its much larger and more modern air force. Now the U.S. and European militaries are training Ukrainian forces in Europe. Most U.S. training takes place at U.S. military bases in Germany. After Russia first invaded in 2014, the U.S. military stepped up training for the Ukrainian military in western Ukraine.

Ukraine invasion — explained

One reason that countries such as Germany have been reluctant to send heavier weapons to the Ukrainians is that Berlin does not want to give Putin any pretext for escalation. Just ask Austria's Archduke Franz Ferdinand, whose improbable assassination in Sarajevo sparked World War I. https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-armoured-vehicles-is-the-uk-sending-to-ukraine.html does not want a full-scale war in Europe, and Russian President Vladimir Putin knows he would lose a conflict with a 30-member military alliance led by the Americans. As a result, Russia essentially stopped flying fighter jets over Ukraine.

Russia was not present at the discussions, however, and U.S. national security spokesperson John Kirby stated ahead of the talks that the White House did not expect any "tangible deliverables." That scenario could embolden critics of the war; increase public discontent with continued funding for Ukraine; and pose a problem in terms of arms production and supplies for the West. "I think the danger for Ukrainians is if they really do end up with a stalemate, where they've gained very, very little territory where a lot of the equipment supplied by the West has been written off with Ukrainians having suffered very significant casualties," Shea said. The war between Russia and Ukraine entered a new phase this summer when Kyiv launched its much-anticipated counteroffensive, and there were hopes Ukraine would regain the upper hand. In his office, Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council, told the BBC that "Prigozhin is not the most senior. They might become the new political elite".

Kherson's underground resistance: How ordinary people fought Russia from the shadows

If he was, perhaps, facing defeat in Ukraine, he might be tempted to escalate further. We now know the Russian leader is willing to break long-standing international norms. This same logic can be applied to the use of nuclear weapons.