What could happen if Russia wins war in Ukraine? Experts consider the scenarios

If war broke out in Ukraine and Russian forces occupied large swathes of the country, many civilians might flee. But both of these demands would break key Nato principles, namely that the alliance should be open to any European country that wants to join and that all Nato members should be sovereign nations. The Prime Minister also suggested Britain could provide more military support to Ukraine as legislation to allow for tougher UK sanctions against Russia were expected to come into force today.

• The United States might provide Mi-17 helicopters, which were being readied for Afghanistan.
• The devastation was felt most acutely in Kharkiv, where an apartment block was hit, killing two people, and injuring 35 residents.
• Ukraine would win the war faster if it had permission to fire British and other Western weapons against targets deep inside Russia, the head of the Ukrainian navy has signalled.
• Often hard to attribute, these could target banks, businesses, individuals and even critical national infrastructure.
• If Ukraine's circumstances became more dire, the United States or NATO allies might consider intervening with their own forces.

Souvenirs of the sea war decorate a room at a secret location in Odesa, southern Ukraine, where the admiral gave his interview earlier this month. Ukraine would win the war faster if it had permission to fire British and other Western weapons against targets deep inside Russia, the head of the Ukrainian navy has signalled. In a wide-ranging interview, the Ukrainian commander also said his navy would gladly take charge of two British warships the Royal Navy may reportedly have to retire early because of a shortage of sailors. We will continue to work with Ukraine and our international partners for a just and sustainable peace.

A pariah nation?

Russian military convoys have crossed from Belarus into Ukraine's northern Chernihiv region, and from Russia into the Sumy region, which is also in the north, Ukraine's border guard service (DPSU) said. https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-would-happen-if-russia-launched-a-nuke-in-ukraine.html urged Ukrainian soldiers in the combat zone to lay down their weapons and go home, but said clashes were inevitable and "only a question of time". Russia did not want to occupy Ukraine, he said, but would demilitarise and "de-Nazify" the country. Russia has begun a large-scale military attack on Ukraine, its southern neighbour, on the orders of Russian President Vladimir Putin. What is published in NATO Review does not constitute the official position or policy of NATO or member governments.NATO Review seeks to inform and promote debate on security issues. But he said drones could be useful - although Turkey is already supplying them to Ukraine.

• They could help deny Moscow the capacity to conduct a large-scale heavy fire power campaign to rapidly occupy Ukraine east of the Dnieper River and seize key cities, such as Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odessa.
• It has cut diplomatic ties with Russia, offered weapons to anyone who wants them and declared an overnight curfew for Kyiv.
• A more ruthless form of deterrence, by denial rather than punishment, based on a beefed-up forward defence seems the only appropriate response.
• When the curfew lifts, and air raids sirens go silent, people nervously rush to the shops - if the shops are open, and the shelves still have supplies.
• Neither Russia nor Ukraine give details of their own losses, so reliable numbers are extremely difficult.

Western intelligence officials concluded that the incident fitted into a pattern of Russia widening its military activities to involve attacks on infrastructure underpinning Western economic and energy security. First, Russian forces would have to seize far larger swathes of territory of Europe's second-largest country, including the capital Kyiv, a city of nearly three million people known to be resolutely pro-European and pro-Nato. There's also been heavy street-to-street fighting in areas including the second largest city of Kharkiv.

‘Your country needs you’

Basic food supplies in African and Asian countries that depend on Ukraine, the world’s fifth-largest wheat exporter in 2020, will be hit. Additional, defensive Nato deployments on Russia’s borders could increase the risk of Europe-wide conflagration. Analysts say Russia could opt for a more limited, less risky offensive to grab extra territory in eastern Ukraine and the Donbas, while asserting the independence of pro-Moscow breakaway republics there, as in Georgia in 2008. It may also try to seize the major ports of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov and Odessa on the Black Sea, and create a “land bridge” to Crimea. Something that could help Ukraine would be the ability to use long-range western weapons, such as Britain's Storm Shadow missile or American ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems), against military targets inside Russia.