How a Russian invasion of Ukraine could spill over into Europe

A missile strike by Russia on London would not be Vladimir Putin’s primary goal should the UK and other nations be dragged into the war in Ukraine, a senior defence official has told i. Civil defence, military and local council sources have all confirmed no UK cities have had air raid sirens or civil defence systems in place since they were wound up at the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s. The UK Government has no active system in place to provide the public with early warning of a nuclear attack, i revealed this week.

• Its troops and military vehicles have secretly taken part in the fighting since 2014, but this deployment will probably be much larger.
• For democracies, long-term consensus in support for war has always been more complicated than for autocrats with no accountability.
• William Courtney, an adjunct senior fellow at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation, was U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan, Georgia, and U.S.-USSR negotiations to implement the Threshold Test Ban Treaty.
• Displayed in one corner is the lid of a tube of a Ukrainian missile used to sink the flagship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet in the first weeks of the full-scale invasion.
• He fears a people power revolution like Ukraine's and the emergence of a more prosperous democracy and how that might encourage Russians to want the same.

Military analysts believe the Russian invaders would seek to encircle Ukraine's most battle-hardened forces in the east, bomb their main command posts in and around the capital and disrupt supply lines. A full-on assault of Ukraine, with Russian forces attacking from the north, east and south, would aim to encircle the most potent arm of the Ukrainian military in the east, as well as make a move on the capital. Under Nato's Article 5 the entire western military alliance is obliged to come to the defence of any member state that comes under attack. A large diversion of citizens to military duty would leave gaps in the workforce to be filled, be it guarding food warehouses or building trenches and bomb shelters. Retired members of essential professions – doctors, nurses, morticians, police – would be urged back into service.

What war could mean for life in modern Britain

It is a similar picture in Gaza where, despite the ferocity of Israel’s military assault, the Israel Defence Forces are still encountering stiff resistance from Hamas. Vladimir Putin’s decision to launch his “special military operation” against Ukraine was motivated by a belief that the West would not mount any meaningful opposition. First there came the manufacturing of a critical emergency in two areas of eastern Ukraine that have been under the control of Russia-backed separatists since 2014.

• But he said Russian forces massed on the border were still missing some crucial elements - such as full logistical support, ammunition stocks, field hospitals and blood banks.
• There is no doubt Ukraine's armed forces will fight to the death if attacked but the superior firepower of Russia's military means they could be quickly overwhelmed.
• If we took casualties at the rate the Ukrainians are taking them, the NHS would immediately be overwhelmed, and for years we’ve missed recruitment targets for the Armed Forces.
• There have also been reports of troops landing by sea at the Black Sea port cities of Mariupol and Odesa in the south.
• That deal also contained a ceasefire agreement, which is now also void.

Russia said it has destroyed more than 70 military targets in Ukraine. https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-armoured-vehicles-is-the-uk-sending-to-ukraine.html was preceded by artillery fire and there were injuries to border guards, the DPSU said. Convoys have also entered the eastern Luhansk and Kharkiv regions, and moved into the Kherson region from Crimea - a territory that Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

How will the war end?

As fighting intensifies, cross-Channel shipping is attacked by Russian submarines, and long-range conventional missiles strike Dover and Southampton. After an uneasy peace with Ukraine, Moscow has sent forces into the Baltics, clashing with British troops based there to protect Nato’s eastern flank. Sitting in Kyiv, many thought that the sight of Russian troops in the heart of this capital was just a matter of time - they counted it in hours.

He points out that our digital networks are mainly cellular in structure, making it almost impossible to wipe them all at once. But if Ukraine’s experience is anything to go by, the threat posed by a common enemy could have a unifying effect. Kyiv’s politicians used to be notoriously fractious – not least because of divisions between the pro and anti-Russian camps. Once Putin rolled his tanks in, pro-Russian sentiment largely vanished.

The Ukrainian armed forces said they had shot down five Russian planes and a helicopter - which Russia denies - and inflicted casualties on invading troops. Paragraphs 28 and 29 of the new Strategic Concept leave no ambiguity on the continued role played by nuclear weapons as the ultimate guarantee of Allied security. But to disable the corrosive effect of Moscow’s nuclear blackmail against Allies, a more robust declaratory nuclear policy by NATO is in order. Moreover, the use of nuclear weapons against targets in Ukraine – however improbable - cannot be ruled out.

By avoiding Russian efforts at rapid encirclement, Ukraine could trade space for time. Stingers could down Russian airlifters and helicopters providing logistics support to forward fighters. The focus of increased assistance might be defensive weapons that can be rapidly absorbed by Ukraine's armed forces. They could help deny Moscow the capacity to conduct a large-scale heavy fire power campaign to rapidly occupy Ukraine east of the Dnieper River and seize key cities, such as Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odessa. Ukraine, with substantial help from the United States and NATO, is prepared to deter and defend against attack.

Even if cyberattacks didn’t wipe out Netflix, wartime Britons would still face a life without luxuries. While the Channel has long been the country’s greatest defence, it makes it hard to import in times of war. As well as curbs on foreign consumer goods, there’d be runs on more basic products like medical kits, fuel canisters and masking tape to stop windows shattering during bombing raids.

• While the NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997 – though effectively torn to shreds by Russia – was not formally revoked at the Summit, any self-restrictions which NATO took on as part of the agreement should now be considered null and void.
• The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany will be frozen indefinitely.
• On 24 January Nato announced it was putting forces on standby and sending additional ships and fighter jets to Nato deployments in eastern Europe, “reinforcing Allied deterrence and defence”.
• If Russia recognises their expanded borders, it may order its troops to begin an offensive against the Ukrainian army.
• The focus of increased assistance might be defensive weapons that can be rapidly absorbed by Ukraine's armed forces.
• "Where the Ukrainians have an advantage is they're fighting for their own territory and all that massive firepower is going to be hard to use as an occupation force, as NATO found out in Afghanistan.