Top Trends for 2009:



On our GloboTrends wiki homepage, we will keep an updated list of global macro trends that we think are the most important to keep an eye on. Some of this list are statistically unlikely to occur, but if they did, it could cause global disruption. These unlikely events were dubbed Black Swan's in a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb , or might be called the "fat tail" probability in statistics. Others trends we are watching in the GloboTrends wiki are currently ongoing right now (such as our coverage of the credit crisis, deleveraging, margin calls, etc), and we will talk about how they happened, and predict their likely outcome. The format of a wiki makes the document dynamic, so any of our community is welcome to help shape our views of these important developments. Please log in to our wiki, and feel free to comment...



In no particular order, here are the global macro trends that we think will be most significant in the coming year (2009):

1. credit crisis of 2007/08 will continue on into 2009...this one is clear...but, how long will it last? how will it fundamentally change international finance? Add your comments to our wiki...
2. fiscal stimulus and crisis recovery 2009
3. deleveraging of Financial markets will continue. In my opinion, this is the most destructive of all the trends.
4. Risk of deflation in the US as Fed Funds target rate approaches zero (other analysts see the opposite risk of potential hyper inflation). Add your comments..
5. more...



add to this list.. Predictions-for-2009

The trouble with borrowing money to pay for stimulus is that interest rates rise, which is exactly the opposite of what the government wanted in the first place (to get credit markets functioning again). In this blog post, we will look a how there is a limit to the amount of stimulus that will be effective, because after some point…the additional cost of borrowing will push rates back up

There has been lots of talk lately of "deglobalization"...especially since Gordon Brown (Prime Minister of the UK) mentioned these words at Davos, a little over a week ago. But what does it mean? Are we really de-globalizing? In this article, I will argue that while the treats of protectionism are real...it's still a bit too soon to call "deglobalization" a trend (no matter how good this may sound in headlines).

Is the fiscal stimulus plan BIG enough? my analysis is that its (a) too small, and (b) aimed at the wrong part of the economy

Foreign analysts that encourage China to spend that stockpile of “money” to stimulate the internal demand (and boost the world economy) are likely to be disappointed.

This is extremely dangerous because it sets precedent for the other major trading partners.

GloboTrends is happy :-)

Global trend analysis serving investors, macro economists, and global business leaders. We write on global events, economics, finance and innovations that impact international business.

Hubdub review

As commercial banks leave,you have to wonder if their stated reasons are valid, or if they are forecasting trouble on the horizon?

Top Trends for 2009:

In no particular order, here are the global macro trends that we think will be most significant in the coming year (2009):

1. Credit crisis of 2007/08 will continue on into 2009…this one is clear…but, how long will it last? how will it fundamentally change international finance? Add your comments to our wiki…
2. Deleveraging of Financial markets will continue. In my opinion, this is the most destructive of all the trends.
3. Risk of deflation in the US as Fed Funds target rate approaches zero (other analysts see the opposite risk of potential hyper inflation). Add your comments..
4. Changes are happening in China. We are especially concerned about the relations/ dependency between China & USA
5. Protectionism rises: free trade movement slows down in 2008
6. Fiscal stimulus expected in massive doses…but will it have any effect at counteracting the deleveraging process?
7. Monetary / Fiscal policy seen as ineffective…so expect un-conventional action from the Fed, such as quantitative easing
8. Rise in risk aversion - investors and companies are paying for safety (as negative Treasury yields have indicated)
9. Philosophical move away from “free markets” toward “bigger government”. How far will the pendulum swing?
10. nationalizations will increase as companies go bankrupt, and look for protection. privatizations will increase as governments sell off assets to raise cash….which will be the more important force?
11. IMF will become more important, WTO might be sidelined
12. USA is losing stature (military seen as less strong, economy less of a model)
13. US dollar: will it continue recent trend of strengthening during the crisis? Or, will the weak dollar trend resume after the height of the crisis passes, and investors become concerned about excessive debt levels (which no doubt will be increased as we pay for fiscal stimulus packages proposed with the new administration)